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May 24, 2024
Banxico Minutes: Unanimous Pause, Diverging Cuts
May 24, 2024 9:24 PM UTC
Banxico maintained the policy rate at 11%, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The board was unanimous in this decision but divided on the timing of future cuts. Despite expectations for a rebound in economic activity, concerns about inflationary pressure
U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Less weak than the preliminary, with less of a bounce in inflation expectations
May 24, 2024 2:21 PM UTC
May’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a substantial fall in confidence and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The final data shows a slightly smaller fall in confidence and less evidence of rising inflation expectations.
Canada March Retail Sales - Soft month, subdued quarter, but stronger April expected
May 24, 2024 1:26 PM UTC
Canada’s 0.2% decline in March retail sales was a little weaker than the preliminary unchanged estimate given with February’s report, and the detail looks weaker still, with sales down by 0.6% ex autos and overall sales down by 0.4% in real terms. The preliminary signal for April however is po
U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Rise fully on defense but some underlying improvement
May 24, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
April durable goods orders are stronger than expected, and while the gains of 0.7% overall and 0.4% ex transport are moderate, they are a little above recent trend. While the overall rise came fully on defense, gains in non-defense capital ex aircraft orders of 0.3% and shipments of 0.4% suggest bus
UK Sales Weakness Curbing Pricing Power?
May 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC
Ending an interesting week of UK data, retail sales slumped in April, partly due to what was a wet month. Notably, sales volumes fell by 2.3% m/m following a broadly flat February and March 2024 and were down by 2.7% y/y and 3.8% below their pre-pandemic level. This weaker-than-expected outcome
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 24, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback is gained further traction after stronger PMI data. THB saw the largest losses of 0.57%, followed by MYR 0.15%, PHP 0.12%, SGD 0.07%, CNH 0.05%, CNY and HKD 0.02%; the only winners are TWD 0.14% and KRW 0.04%.
USD/CNH i
May 23, 2024
Brazil: Activity Surprises Again in the First Quarter
May 23, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
Brazil's Q1 2024 economic performance shows a promising 1% GDP growth, driven by a 3.5% year-over-year activity increase. Retail trade grew by 2.5%, reflecting strong internal demand and improved labor market conditions. Industrial production saw a modest 0.3% growth, with manufacturing stagnation o
U.S. April New Home Sales - Losing momentum
May 23, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
April new home sales at 634k are weaker than expected, with March’s unexpectedly strong 693k outcome revised down to 665k, with April down 4.7% after a revised 5.4% March increase. While the decline does not fully reverse March’s increase housing data mostly is suggesting a loss of momentum.
U.S. May S&P PMIs - Rebounding from weaker April, Services to a 12-month high
May 23, 2024 2:01 PM UTC
May’s stronger preliminary S and P PMIs contrast April data which suggested a loss of momentum in the economy entering Q2, with manufacturing rising to 50.9 from 50.0 and services seeing quite a sharp bounce to 54.8 from 51.3, more than fully reversing three straight declines.
Preview: Due May 24 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Underlying trend remains near flat
May 23, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to fall by 0.8% after a rise of 0.9% in March (after annual revisions were released on May 14) with a 0.3% increase ex transport to follow an unchanged March. Underlying trend remains close to flat.
U.S. Initial Claims suggest any labor market slowing is marginal
May 23, 2024 12:45 PM UTC
Initial claims at 215k have fallen from 223k, a second straight fall from the 232k outcome two weeks ago that was the highest since August 25 2023. The latest data is not much above the trend seen before the spike of two weeks ago, suggesting that while the labor market may be easing slightly, it is
Eurozone: PMIs Offer More Positive Gimmers – Still Too Good to be True?
May 23, 2024 9:19 AM UTC
The latest PMI data suggest the EZ economic recovery gained further momentum in May as the composite index rose to 52.3 in May from 51.7 in April, thereby implying positive private sector growth for the third consecutive month. We remain wary about the messages from the data (see below and Figure