SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 28 1238 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40528
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 May 2024, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: There are nine visible active regions on
the solar disk. Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. The
largest flare of the period was an C8.9 flare, with peak time 19:16 UTC on
May 27 originating from Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 3691), the most
complex region on disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The
expected returning region rotating over the south-east limb, which has been
numbered as Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 3697), also produced C-class
flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next
24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low
probability for further X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 07:24 UTC May 27. This CME has a plane of sky speed
of around 800km/s and was predominantly directed to the east. It is
associated with the X2.8 flare originating from beyond the east limb, with
peak time 07:08 UTC on May 27. Due to the location of the source region, a
significant Earth directed component is not expected but a minor shock
arrival may be expected on May 29. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind: The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime
with speeds around 350 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5
nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -4 nT. Slow solar wind
conditions are expected to continue generally on May 28 and 29. Minor
enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible
from late on May 29, due to a possible shock associated with the halo CME
of May 27 but this is low confidence.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
(NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on May 28, with a chance for active
conditions on May 29 in response to the possible shock arrival from the
halo CME of May 27.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so.
There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong
flaring from NOAA ARs 3697 or 3691, but this is unlikely due in their
current position on disk.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased
slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16.
It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The
24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is
expected remain at nominal levels over the next day.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 148, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 170
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 132, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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